POLITICS 101: WHAT HAPPENED TODAY IN A NUTSHELL

(1) Tinubu had schemed to make Oshiomhole the APC Chairman.
They happily kicked Oyegun out and put him there.
(2) Oshiomhole took to the job aggressively with the aim of
establishing party supremacy over everybody in government
except the President. It was clear that he was going to attempt to
use his position as party Chairman to grab governmental power.
He began fighting everyone in sight while pictured repeatedly with
Buhari to indicate he has a blank cheque from Aso Rock.
(3) He started by attacking Dr Chris Ngige and Hadi Sirika over
some boards’ appointments in their ministries, declaring that if the
President allows indiscipline and insubordination, he wont tolerate
it. He gave them a 7-day ultimatum and threatened to expel them
from the party. In other words, he was trying to establish himself
as a co-head of government with the President by virtue of being
APC Chairman.
(4) He also thought with his arrival, he would be able to stop the
impending defection of some APC lawmakers and governors to the
PDP. He couldn’t stop them and that dented his ego considerably.
His reaction was to begin to hit out at all the defectors, talking
volubly and contradictorily, but still meeting the President daily to
scheme on what to do next.
(5) He began to plan with APC National Assembly members on a
plot to remove Saraki and Dogara. This plan was afoot when the
President travelled to London.
(6) As part of the plan, yesterday night, Oshiomhole met with 30
APC National Assembly members and the DSS chief, Daura to plan
the crude removal of Saraki and Dogara today. Oshiomhole was
planning to impress the President by presenting a ‘victory’ over
Saraki and Dogara to him on his return. He told Daura he would be
calling the President once the show was on to know who he’d want
as Senate President. It is not clear if the President knew the detail
of what Oshiomhole and Daura were doing, but he sure has given
Oshiomhole the impression that he can do anything to protect his
interest and the interest of the party.
(7) Oshiomhole felt he could use Daura for the purpose because he
is the President’s relation and kinsman who is more or less a law
unto himself in the administration. He felt the DSS can carry out
this action without any order from the Acting President who he
kept out of the picture. In his calculation, the Acting President is
not a problem. Again, whether the President knew this or not is
unclear; but it’s obvious that the Acting President was not aware.
(8) But, the PDP legislators got wind of the plan and decided to get
to the National Assembly to forestall any plan to crudely remove
their leadership. They got there early while the APC legislators
were holed up somewhere supposedly at a caucus meeting from
where they were to move en masse to the National Assembly once
secured by the DSS. The idea was to swoop on the leadership at
12:00 midday when they were supposed to be at the meeting
Saraki called for today and effect their plan. But, the PDP Senators
were already there early calling attention to what was happening,
even as they were refused entry by the DSS. At this point, the APC
plotters knew they’d been rumbled. They kept away knowing now
the plan had been foiled.
(9) An alarmed Osinbajo was watching all this like the rest of
Nigeria on TV. He had a call from Tinubu who wanted to know if
he gave the order for the DSS to blockade the National Assembly.
He said he didn’t. Tinubu let him know that the world isn’t happy
with what they’re seeing and that if they are going to lose the
election, this would be that moment things turned against them. On
Tinubu’s advice, the Vice President called Daura and the IGP to a
meeting to find out what was going on. The IGP said his men were
not part of the blockade at the National Assembly and Daura said
he acted on the order of the APC Chairman and the Chief of Staff
to the President, Abba Kyari.
(10) Whether the Vice President sacked Daura after consultation
with the President is not clear. But what is clear is that he did it
knowing that it was the most obvious damage control measure to
take considering the national and international uproar the incident
had generated. At any rate, Tinubu and Osinbajo know that the
President cannot reverse the decision to sack Daura because he
needs Tinubu to stand any chance of winning the 2019 election.
Buhari cannot therefore afford to annoy him now. Tinubu and
Osinbajo were also confident that they could convince him it’s in
their interest for Daura to be the fall guy following the national and
international uproar.
(11) There is nothing in all this that indicates the President does
not know what happened with the deployment of the DSS to the
National Assembly. What is obvious is that he has been working
closely with Oshiomhole, Kyari, Daura, Idris and Baru of NNPC on
a plan to remove Saraki and Dogara before he left for London.
(12) What is now clear is that this is the beginning of a fight
between Oshiomhole and Osinbajo with the latter backed by Tinubu
who must now be having a buyer’s remorse over his support for
Oshiomhole for the party chairmanship. The President is caught in
their middle. Whether he knew or didn’t know of Daura’s sack
before it happened, he can’t reverse it now because he knows how
costly that would be for him politically. What we have now is a
divided government, a government run by cartels. Something must
give. The ants that will eat up the APC are embedded inside the
APC now. What we will see from now till election day in 2019 will
not be for the fainthearted. Hurricane Oshiomhole is here to help
bury the APC. They happily sowed the wind and now they must
reap the whirlwind!

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3 Comments

  1. Good

  2. Good summary there

  3. Ok

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