RUBBISHING THE NARRATIVE OF POLITICS IN NIGERIA

Severally I’ve read on this space of how the SE,SS voting
population doesn’t match that of the SW in tge whole of South.
So today, as I walked across the Twitter street I saw this post from
the official handle of APC where they practically divided the Geo
political zones into two, while apportioning the entire SW amd NW
to themselves, while the rest of SS,SE,NC,NE to PDP.
If not ignorance, the party would not have made this blunder of
voter demarcation because it pegs them in bad light. The
combination of NW and SW in terms of state stands at 12 states
while NE,SE,SS and NC makes up the 24 states out of the 36
states excluding FCT. So going by this, in number of states, the
PDP is practically leading.
Aside this, following the 2015 general election data, both SE and SS
are traditional states of PDP that never gave APC more than 5% of
the total votes in the region.
In the whole of South, from 2015 general election data, SW has the
highest number of registered voters but managed to have about
4m+ accredited voters in the region with SE recording 2m+
accredited voters (voter apathy contributing to the low turn out
plus the non- residence of some registered Igbos in SE), while the
SS had the highest numbers of accredited voters in the whole of
South with over 5.5m+ topping the SW with over 800k accredited
votes in the region.
Statistically, from 2015 GE data, for every 100 votes cast in SE and
SS, the PDP got 98% of votes cast with 1% going to APC and the
remaining 1% shared between Mazi Void Votes and other Political
Parties. While I SW, for every 100 votes cast in tge election, APC
got 50% with PDP (even with a candidate not appealing to the SW)
having 48% of the accredited votes while 1% goes to Mazi Void
Votes will the remaining 1% going to other Political Parties as well.
Making PDP I 2015 gain more than 25% which is the constitutionall
y required number from the region. APC won’t the SW will a
fraction of not more than 200k votes in SW over the PDP but the
PDP in SS and SE didn’t even score up to 1m votes in the both
region that had over 7m votes combined together.
Where as the PDP lost tge general election within a fraction of 2m
votes, this could be attributed to the Northern candidate angle plus
the voter apathy showed by the SE in the last election. It is
expedient to note that it’s difficult for APC to win the SW absolutely
due to the following factors;
1. In SW, there’s an appreciable % of Igbo and SS residents there
whose voter’s records aren’t domiciled in their states of origin but
in their states of residence,
2. The PDP has a fairly strong structure in the SW unlike the APC
in SS&SE. This structure contributes to a sizeable numbers of
votes they could get from the region,
3. In SW, there are people who are dissatisfied with the style of
leadership of the present government, this showed in the
3governorship elections in the region where the victory margin
connote the above.
So these factors would make it very difficult for the APC to have a
landslide victory in the SW considering their diminishing popularity
in the SW. Unlike the PDP in 1999 whom didn’t win the SW but
consolidated on her general election victory to woo the SW to her
in 2003, APC won the SW but has not been able to cement her
victory in the region to at least 80%.
Therefore, in 2019 all things being equal, with a Northern
candidate from PDP, not just a any Northern candidate, one who
has a very loud and large Political structure in the North and from a
geopolitical zone that has been clamouring for Presidency since
(North East), it won’t be running ahead of one’s shadow if one
predict a victory for the PDP at this stage.
Many factors are against the ruling party at this stage they know
that very well reason why they demarcated these zones with an
imaginary figure.
Only a fool would assume that 14m registered voters in SW, would
come out to vote in 2019, highest turn out would be 5m, likewise in
NW. This is practically why the President is reluctant to sign the
Electoral Act 2018 to law because he knows the effect that the card
reader and electronic transmission of results from PU2Ward would
cause.

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10 Comments

  1. Nice information

  2. Good update

  3. Okay

  4. Good update

  5. That’s bad

  6. clumsy

  7. profiled

  8. Nice one

  9. Good update

  10. Good info

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