Like in 1966, they are strategically positioned to come out stronger whatever happens in post election 2015. If Nigeria breaks, the Yorubas would enjoy their oneness, even the Okuns in Kogi and the Kwara Yorubans would be reunited with their people. With Lagos seaport, they have a strong economy base to start off. Like in 1967, the war of balkanization would not be fought in any Yoruba land, they would have most of their facilities intact.
The Igbos would be constrained by their landlockedness but they would wade off any incursion on their land. They have the ability to do that. Unlike in 1967 the war won’t be fought on their land. While the war rages, the Biafrans would consolidate. I am aware of their resilience. What I am scared off is the south south and the north. The south south will go with their oil. That will be great, that should be a relief. But then who controls oil mostly on the sea beyond any body’s territory? The people or their government? That the Ijaws appeared more aggressive does not imply that the rest would be
Sorry. No data so far.
We will witness the rise of a new set of warlords divided along ethnic nationalities in these places. So nobody will actually enjoy the oil except the man powerful enough to do so. The US and her allies would capitalise on a non existing sovereign state to explore what should have been the exclusive economic zone oil there for peanuts. They will never allowed peace to return to the area. So what they are crying that the Nigerian state has fraudulently stolen from them, the US will continue to rob them off.
The north, cut off from the sea and free oil money, divided dangerously by ethnicity and religion, would be cut in the struggle of who would control the Nigerian infrastructural legacies in their land. The struggle to control Abuja, Kaduna and Lokoja for free access to the southern countries and the sea would be intense. In the long run, nobody would be safe. Not the Yorubas, not the Igbos.
I still believe this contest should not be. Parliamentary democracy is our best option to permanently and peacefully renegotiate Nigeria.